By the 12 months 2060, projected rates of cardiovascular risk aspects and disease will increase significantly in the US, in line with a study published today within the Journal of the American College of Cardiology. Substantial increases in cardiovascular trends may contribute to a rising burden on the U.S. health care system and highlight the necessity for equitable access to prevention education and coverings now to forestall future disease.
The researchers used data from the 2020 U.S. Census Bureau report for the years 2025 to 2060, and combined these census counts with the prevalence of cardiovascular risk aspects or disease based on the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. From these estimates, the investigators evaluated projected cardiovascular risk aspects and diseases in groups based on sex (female and male), age (18-44 years; 45-64; 67-79; >80) and race and ethnicity (Asian, Black, Hispanic, White and other). The researchers analyzed projected rates for the next cardiovascular risk aspects: diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, obesity; and the next cardiovascular diseases: ischemic heart disease, heart failure, heart attack and stroke.
Amongst the overall U.S. population, all 4 CV risk aspects are expected to extend from 2025 to 2060, with the biggest percentage increase in diabetes (39.3% increase to 55 million individuals), followed by dyslipidemia (27.6% to 126M), hypertension (25.1% to 162M) and obesity (18.3% to 126M). The researchers found that stroke (33.8% to 15M) and heart failure (33.4% to 13M) were the very best projected increases in rates of cardiovascular diseases, followed by ischemic heart disease (30.7% to 29M) and heart attack (16.9% to 16M).
Projections for CV risk aspects or diseases from 2025 to 2060 are expected to stabilize for males versus females (other than obesity, where women are projected to proceed to have higher prevalence) in addition to across age. Nevertheless, all projections for race and ethnicity minority groups exponentially rose, while projections for White individuals regularly decreased. The Black population is predicted to experience the very best CV risk factor burden amongst all race and ethnicity increases. As well as, CVD rate increases are projected to have the very best impact on the Black and Hispanic populations.
“Our evaluation projects that that the prevalence of cardiovascular risk aspects and diseases will proceed to rise with worrisome trends,” said James L. Januzzi Jr., MD, cardiologist at Massachusetts General Hospital, Cardiology Division, Hutter Family Professor of Medicine at Harvard Medical School, Trustee of the ACC, and senior writer of the study. “These striking projections will disproportionately affect racial and ethnic minority populations within the U.S. Understanding these results will hopefully inform future public health policy efforts and permit us to implement prevention and treatment measures in an equitable manner.”
The researchers recommend emphasizing education regarding CV risk aspects, improving access to quality health care and facilitating lower-cost access to effective treatment therapies to stem the rising tide of CVD in at-risk individuals. As well as, health policy will have to be developed to enhance health care access to historically neglected populations, implement customized preventive strategies and dismantle broader systems leaving racial and ethnic minorities with inferior care.
Ultimately, as prevention is imperative to tackle the long run burden of heart problems, the outcomes from this study pose a vital challenge. In an effort to reduce the burden of heart problems within the U.S. population, health care policymakers might want to allocate preventive measures and health care resources to the more vulnerable populations we projected to have higher percentage rise in disease.”
Reza Mohebi MD, Study Lead Creator and Dennis and Marilyn Barry Fellow, Cardiology, Massachusetts General Hospital
“Despite that several assumptions underlie these projections, the importance of this work can’t be overestimated,” said Andreas Kalogeropoulos, MD, MPH, PhD, clinical and outcomes researcher at Stony Brook University Medical Center and writer of the accompanying editorial comment. “Absolutely the numbers are staggering and suggest that by 12 months 2060, in comparison with 2025, the numbers of individuals, particularly minorities, with CV risk aspects are expected to extend dramatically. Unless targeted motion is taken, disparities within the burden of heart problems are only going to be exacerbated over time.”
The study has several limitations, including the standard approach to generating predictions for future CV disease by assuming future patterns of CV risk aspects. The study authors didn’t think about COVID-19 to the estimates or potential long-term impacts of COVID-19 on the cardiovascular system. Lastly, CVDs were defined based on self-report.
Source:
American College of Cardiology
Journal reference:
Mohebi, R., et al. (2022) Cardiovascular Disease Projections in the US Based on the 2020 Census Estimates. Journal of the American College of Cardiology. doi.org/10.1016/j.jacc.2022.05.033.