ertility rates within the U.S. have been declining for years and were predicted to further decline right into a “baby bust” in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, a recent evaluation has found that the country actually saw a “baby bump” within the period.

The common number of youngsters over a lady’s lifetime declined from 2.1 to 1.6 from 2007 to 2020, the researchers noted in a recent National Bureau of Economic Research paper. The authors called them “historic lows,” noting the trend prompted “concerns in regards to the way forward for the American family, the strength of the labor force, and the solvency of public programs that depend on the contributions of younger generations.”

Researchers analyzed the information on all U.S. births from 2015 to 2021, in addition to the births in California from 2015 to this August. They found the birth rate did decline in early 2020 as predicted by economists.

Nevertheless, it was not on account of job loss or economic uncertainty. As a substitute, much of it was likely brought on by the “sharp reductions” in foreign moms giving birth within the U.S.

“Consistent with reductions in international travel on account of restrictions and angst about travel, fertility rates amongst foreign-born moms fell immediately in 2020 — nine months too soon to reflect the pandemic’s effects on conceptions,” the authors wrote.

This, they are saying, shows the importance of foreign-born women’s role in bolstering the U.S. fertility rates, without whom the birth rates can be even lower.

Interestingly, the anticipated “baby bust” on account of the pandemic didn’t fully materialize. In truth, data even showed a small “baby bump” by 2021, with rates seeing a 46,000 net increase in births amongst U.S.-born moms.

“This 2021 “baby bump” is the primary major reversal within the U.S. fertility rates for the reason that 2007 Great Recession and was large enough to reverse two years of declining fertility rates,” the authors wrote.

Much of the rise was driven by women who had their first children, in addition to women who were under 25. The pandemic can have prompted the ladies to “start their families sooner,” the researchers said. Further, government aid can have played an element because it helped keep people financially on their feet even amid the pandemic, Northwestern University noted in a news release.

The rise was also quite “pronounced” amongst women aged 30-34, in addition to those with a university education. It’s possible that the more flexible work setups that flourished in the course of the pandemic helped these groups to spend more time working from home.

“That some women could also be more apt to have children in the event that they have higher flexibility is a really interesting, essential takeaway, especially for the reason that U.S. lags behind other developed countries when it comes to (maternity-related) advantages,” said study writer and economist Hannes Schwandt, of Northwestern University.

Overall, the information showed that quite unlike other recent economic downturns, the pandemic led to a rise in fertility rates amongst U.S.-born moms. And the California data shows that births within the U.S. remain on target to remain elevated through the third quarter of 2022, the authors added.